Elfyn Evans is quickly becoming quite familiar with first place in the World Rally Championship.
Having won Rally Sweden, leading the championship, and now sitting atop the leaderboard at Safari Rally Kenya with one day and five stages remaining, Evans is on track for his first-ever back-to-back WRC victories.
More crucially, he’s on course for another massive points haul, further distancing himself from his rivals.
Before considering Super Sunday and powerstage points, Evans is set to finish the weekend with 86 points. His closest rival? Thierry Neuville, with 44 points. While the rest of the field is tightly packed, Evans is theoretically 42 points ahead after just three rallies.
Of course, all of this is provisional. As we’ve seen throughout Safari, any driver is just one mistake away from a disastrous weekend.
So, what should Evans do? Go all in for the Sunday bonus points, or play it safe and secure the rally win and 25 points?
“Well, I think on a rally like Kenya you have to weigh up, you know, the risk factor, I guess,” Evans said.
“We still need to drive well tomorrow, that goes without saying, and see what we can pick up.”
Whether Evans is undecided or simply withholding his strategy is unclear, but what should he do?
David Evans: Bank What He Has
Elfyn, a quick thought if you have a moment.
I’ve run the numbers: you can afford to lose 2.9 seconds on each of the 41 miles left tomorrow. Don’t get caught up in Super Sunday, and don’t stress about putting all the power into the powerstage. Take the 25 points you and Scotty have built up over the last three days and be content with them.
Ott Tänak is in second, but he’s going to have to take huge risks on Sunday to score a full 10 points. Even if he pulls it off and the Hyundai performs perfectly on the final day, he’ll gain just two points on you—still leaving him 33 behind.
Apologies if this seems like an overly conservative and borderline pessimistic outlook, but you have one mighty fine bird in the hand – ignore the fact there are two apparently just sitting there in the bush.
You know better than anyone how the Safari can bite, and this event will no doubt keep its relentless appetite right until the final metre. You’ve driven a perfect rally so far, balancing both head and heart. Don’t let one overpower the other tomorrow.
Take it steady. Bring it home. Twenty-three years after Colin McRae and Nicky Grist, British and Welsh rallying’s history books are waiting for another page to be written.
Luke Barry: Give it a go
The cautious approach makes sense, especially at Safari. As tempting as the bonus points are, the reward for winning the rally is greater.
However, caution is something Elfyn has often relied on. This year, though, he’s been more willing to attack, staying on the front foot and going for it, as shown by his bold move on the Monte Carlo powerstage and his decisive response to Takamoto Katsuta in Sweden. It’s working for him, and he’s in the form of his life. He shouldn’t waste any opportunity while he has the upper hand.
I’m not suggesting he should risk it all for Sunday bonus points, but why not be in the mix on the first few stages? He could drive fast, but with a little margin, and see where Tänak, Neuville, and Rovanperä stand.
This would give him a chance to make a decision as the day progresses, rather than immediately backing off and giving up any chance to capitalize on drama from the others, who have less reason to ease up.
We saw how Sundays impacted last year’s championship. Elfyn himself admits his early lead this year is slightly inflated by the structure, and he understands the importance of the points. He knows he can’t afford to leave himself too exposed.
But above all, he knows that being too greedy and prioritizing the wrong reward would be foolish.